Question : Weather Forecasting Assistance to People

(a) whether the Government has taken note that some parts of the country including Kerala, North Karnataka, Madhya Pradesh, Maharashtra, Assam, North Bihar, Eastern UP, South Gujarat have received extreme rainfall leading to the condition of floods while some other parts received deficient rainfall leading to drought like conditions and if so, the details thereof;

(b) whether the Government has assessed the gravity of the situation caused due to vagaries of climate and extended any assistance to the affected States and if so, the details thereof;

(c) whether Indian Meteorological Department (IMD) has conducted any research to study the reasons for extreme rainfall and drought conditions in the various parts of the country;

(d) if so, the details thereof and the outcome thereto; and

(e) whether the Government/IMD proposes to devise a mechanism where farmers/people are being provided with meteorological assistance to predict rainfall or drought in different parts of the country to save agriculture and human life and if so, the details thereof?

THE MINISTER FOR SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY AND
MINISTRY OF EARTH SCIENCES
(DR. HARSH VARDHAN)

(a) Yes Sir. Monsoon rainfall varies on different spatial and temporal scales. Extreme rainfall events that occur at some places and some other parts receiving deficient rainfall are part of the natural variability of the Indian monsoon system itself. India Meteorological Department (IMD) issues rainfall forecasts and associated warnings well in advance to entire country. The district wise rainfall activity (in all categories) for the entire country during the Monsoon Season 2019 is attached as Annexure.

(b) India Meteorological Department (IMD) through its State Meteorological Centres issues forecasts & warnings for the impending adverse weather (district-wise) as and when required to support the mitigation measures.

(c) & (d) IMD is mainly associated with the operational weather forecasting services for the country. However, the research institutions such as Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology (IITM), Pune and National Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasting (NCMRWF), Noida under the Ministry of Earth Sciences are conducting research studies in relation to the extreme weather events which help to further improve the operational forecasting services of IMD.

Such research studies carried out by these institutions have brought out that global warming is one of the main reasons for the increasing trend in the occurrence of extreme weather events. The studies have also brought out that : (i) the frequency of very light rain and light to moderate rain events during the monsoon season has decreased over most parts of the country (ii) frequency of very heavy and extreme rainfall events over northern parts of the country has increased significantly, and (iii) during the period, 1901-2010, heavy rainfall events (rainfall exceeding 15 cm in 24 hours) over northern parts of the country show an increasing trend of about 6% per decade.

(e) India Meteorological Department (IMD) runs an operational Agrometeorological Advisory Service (AAS) viz., Gramin Krishi Mausam Sewa (GKMS) scheme for the benefit of farming community in the country. Under the scheme, medium range weather forecast at district level is generated and issued. Based on the forecast, Agromet Advisories are being prepared and communicated by the 130 Agromet Field Units (AMFUs) located at State Agricultural Universities, institutes of Indian Council of Agricultural Research (ICAR) and IIT etc., to the farmers on every Tuesday and Friday to take decision on day-to-day agricultural operations. AAS rendered by IMD is a step towards weather-based crop and livestock management strategies and operations dedicated to enhancing crop production and food security besides reducing crop damage and loss due to unusual weather.

Agromet Advisories are communicated to the farming community through multichannel dissemination system like print and electronic media, DoorDarshan, radio, internet etc. including SMS using mobile phones through Kisan Portal launched by Ministry of Agriculture and Farmers’ Welfare and also through private companies under Public Private Partnership (PPP) mode. At present, 42 million farmers in the country receive the Agromet Advisories through SMS directly.

In addition, IMD in collaboration with Central Research Institute for Dryland Agriculture (CRIDA) is continuously issuing Agromet Advisories using Extended Range Forecast (ERF) throughout the season particularly during prolonged dry spell / poor rainfall situation for farmers and other users.