(a) whether the India Meteorological Department (IMD) is aware of the dismal monsoon
forecast;
(b) if so, the details thereof;
(c) the details of monsoon related projections of IMD during the last three years, current year
and the corresponding actual figures;
(d) the statistically acceptable margin of error between the projections and actual observation
and whether such a difference lies between those figures; and
(e) if so, the details thereof?
MINISTER FOR MINISTRY OF SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY AND MINISTRY OF EARTH SCIENCES
(SHRI S. JAIPAL REDDY)
(a) Earth System Science Organization (ESSO) - IMDs monsoon forecasts are not at all found to
be dismal as far as the verification of last 10-years long range forecasts of monsoon are
concerned. Details of the forecast errors are presented below:
Period No. of years during No. of years during No. of years during Which Errors were Which Errors were Which Errors were Within ±4% Within ±4-8% higher than ±8% 2003-12 5 (2003; 2005; 2 (2006; 2011) 3 (2004; 2007; 2008; 2010; 2012) 2009) 1993-02 2(1993; 1995) 4(1996; 1998; 4(1994; 1997; 2000;2001) 199;2002)(b) Does not arise.
(c) Monsoon projections of ESSO-IMD for the last three years are presented in Annexure.
(d) The present level of operational acceptability of error margins are of 4% and 5% for the forecasts of all-India seasonal monsoon rainfall issued in June and April respectively every year.
(e) The present long range forecasting system based on the statistical models has shown some useful skill in predicting the all India season rainfall and the methodology has performed better than the earlier models that were updated in 2003 as per the details presented at (a) above.