Question : El Nino Effects

(a) the steps taken to predict summer forecast accurately during the last three years and the current year;

(b) whether World meteorological agencies have expressed concern about the effect of El Nino bringing drought like situation in the country and if so, the prediction of each of the world meteorological agency in this regard;

(c) whether the India Meteorological Department has carried out any study on rainfall, during the current year and if so, the details thereof;

(d) whether any action plan has been chalked out by the Government to tackle adverse impact of abnormal weather condition/less rainfall and issued or proposes to issue guidelines/advisories to States to prepare themselves for El Nino and heat wave effect and if so, the details thereof; and

(e) the further steps taken to create awareness about the scarce rainfall in the country?

THE MINISTER OF STATE FOR MINISTRY OF SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY AND MINISTRY OF EARTH SCIENCES
(SHRI Y. S. CHOWDARY)

(a) In view of its social relevance, since 2016, India Meteorological Department (IMD), Ministry of Earth Sciences (MoES) has started issuing seasonal forecast outlooks of summer temperatures. In addition, IMD also issues heat wave alerts and warnings for 5-7 days and outlook for subsequent 7 days.

For the Hot Weather Season (March to May) of 2017, an outlook was issued on 28th February ,2017 which suggests that above normal temperatures up to 1.0o C are likely to prevail over all meteorological sub-divisions of the country except over northwest India where temperatures are likely to be more than 1.0º C above normal.



(b) As per the global El Niño forecast issued in early March 2017, chances of the occurrence of El Niño exists after August.

World Meteorological Agencies have indicated possibility of El Nino conditions to develop over Pacific later this year. But, none of these agencies have mentioned about its negative impact on the Indian monsoon rainfall this year. According to various studies, there is no one to one relation between these two events.

(c) IMD is working on preparing the forecast for the 2017 southwest monsoon rainfall. The first stage forecast for the same will be issued by middle of April, 2017 as it is being done in the previous years.

(d-e) IMD is continuously monitoring the SST changes in Pacific and Indian Oceans and also prepares their forecast and the same is being issued as El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) bulletin every month, which is provided to the users through IMD, Pune website.

IMD will issue its first stage forecast in April with regular updates. The State Meteorological Centres of IMD in association with various State Governments have been closely coordinating in issuing heat wave alerts so as to minimize the public exposure and to provide due assistance to the vulnerable people (Senior citizens and children) from the sun stroke related incidences. Efforts of IMD are supported by expanding the outreach of heat wave alerts by State Government agencies through print/visual media and others civil society organization.