(a) whether the country got three percent less rain than normal during the monsoon months of June to September, 2016;
(b) if so, whether this is the first time since 2011 that the department was not able to forecast the overall sign of the monsoon this year and if so, the details and the reasons therefor;
(c) whether it is also true that the southern parts of our country received much less rain during these monsoon months; and
(d) if so, the details thereof?
THE MINISTER OF STATE FOR MINISTRY OF SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY AND MINISTRY OF EARTH SCIENCES
(SHRI Y. S. CHOWDARY)
(a) Yes Madam. The seasonal rainfall during the 2016 monsoon season (June-September) over the country as a whole was 862 mm or 3% less than its Long Period Average (LPA). The LPA for the period 1951-2000 is 887.5 mm.
(b) No Madam. The forecasted and realized seasonal rainfall anomalies during the period 2010-2016 are given in Table -1. As seen in the table, the signs of the forecasted rainfall anomalies were same as that of realized rainfall anomalies in 4 years whereas the signs were different during 3 years (2011, 2013 & 2016).
Table -1
The forecasted and realized seasonal rainfall anomalies during the period 2010-2016
Year Actual % departure Forecast % departure
2010 2 2
2011 2 -5
2012 -7 -4
2013 6 -2
2014 -12 -7
2015 -14 -12
2016 -3 6
(c-d) Yes Madam. Among the four broad geographical regions (NW India, NE India, central India & South Peninsula) of the country, south Peninsula received relatively less rainfall (92% of LPA) though it was more than that of NE India (89% of LPA). The subdivision wise rainfall over south Peninsula during the 2016 SW monsoon season is given in Annexure-I. Among the various subdivisions from south Peninsula, Kerala got the least rainfall (66%) followed by Lakshadweep (75% of LPA). However, Costal Andhra Pradesh, Telangana and Rayalaseema received normal rainfall.