Question : Monsoon Prediction

(a) whether farmers in the country including those not having irrigation facilities are now using the agricultural meteorology (Agrimet) service of the India Meteorological Department;
(b) if so, whether monsoon prediction many times do not come true causing failure of planning of large number of farmers in the country;
(c) if so, whether there have been instances where scientists, prediction for monsoon are motivated by multinational companies dealing with business of seeds, pesticides etc. to boost their business and if so, the details of the steps taken by the Government to check such activities in the country;
(d) whether the Government has received any complaints and conducted any investigations to check such nexus of scientists and multinational companies and if so, the details and the outcome thereof;
(e) whether there is scope to extend weather predictions to large-scale hydrological prediction, both short and long-term and if so, the steps taken by the Union Government thereon; and
(f) whether India Meteorological Department (IMD) had predicted ample rain for the months of April and May, but after initial showers many parts of the country did not receive much rain and if so, the details thereof and the reasons therefor?

THE MINISTER OF STATE FOR MINISTRY OF SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY AND MINISTRY OF EARTH SCIENCES
(SHRI Y. S. CHOWDARY)

(a) Yes Madam. The Gramin Krishi Mausam Seva (GKMS) of India Meteorological Department (IMD) has been successful in providing the crop specific advisories to the farmers for appropriate field level actions. Weather forecast based agrometeorological advisories are disseminated through Kisan portal launched by the Ministry of Agriculture and also under public private partner. At present, 23.0 million farmers in the country are receiving the SMS based advisories.




(b) No, Madam. The present long range forecast system based on the statistical models has shown some useful skill in predicting all India seasonal rainfall including the deficient monsoon season rainfall during 2015. However, in order to overcome the limitations of the statistical models used so far, dynamical coupled ocean-atmospheric model framework has been implemented under the National Monsoon Mission.

(c) IMD issues three types of forecasts during the monsoon season i.e., seasonal forecast (for the whole season), extended range forecast (10-30 days) and medium range forecast (3-10 days) for the benefit of farmers which help in reduction of crop loss substantially. In case of extended dry spell or wet spell situations captured by the extended range weather forecast, contingent crop planning is also advised so that crop loss could be minimised. Recent report (2015) by National Centre for Applied Economic Research (NCAER) indicates that large numbers of farmers have faith and confidence these days on IMD’s weather forecasts.

(d) Does not arise.

(e) Meteorological support with river basin scale rainfall predictions on short/medium range scale is already shared with Central Water Commission and hosted on Central Rainfall Information System (CRIS) web-page of IMD.

(f) No Madam. No prediction was made of rainfall for the months of April and May. IMD issues long range forecast for the Monsoon season (June-September) only.