(a) the current technology in place for the prediction of monsoons;
(b) the relative success of this technology in accurately predicting rainfall patterns;
(c) whether the Government plans on introducing a dynamic model for the prediction of monsoon patterns through the Monsoon Mission; and
(d) if so, the success achieved so far by using this model?
THE MINISTER OF STATE (INDEPENDENT CHARGE)
MINISTRY OF SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY, MINISTRY OF EARTH SCIENCES, MINISTER OF STATE IN THE PRIME MINISTER’S OFFICE, MINISTER OF STATE IN THE MINISTRY OF PERSONNEL, PUBLIC GRIEVANCES & PENSIONS AND MINISTER OF STATE IN THE MINISTRY OF PARLIAMENTARY AFFAIRS(SHRI PRITHVIRAJ CHAVAN)
(a) The current seasonal monsoon rainfall forecasting system uses advanced statistical techniques for providing forecasts for monthly and seasonal rainfall over the country as a whole and over four geographical regions (Northwest India, Central India, Northeast India and South Peninsula) with respect to its long period average (LPA).
(b) The performance evaluation of these models suggests limitations in capturing the extreme variability (excess/deficit) of the seasonal quantum of rainfall.
(c) Yes, Madam.
(d) The performance of an adopted coupled ocean-atmospheric model of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), USA is being critically examined for the monsoon-2010 in terms of reasonably capturing locations of excess and deficient rainfall on monthly and seasonal scales at Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorological (IITM), Pune. Based on the above, it is planned to develop a suitable dynamical model for improving the prediction of the monsoon.