(a) whether there is any discrepancy between the back series data released by the CSO and that of the National Statistical Commission and if so, the details thereof;
(b) the details of the Gross Fixed Capital Formation of the previous Government of fifteen years and the current Government, under the old (2004-05) and new (2011-12) series; and
(c) whether the back series data incorporated any new methodology and if so the details thereof ?
MINISTER OF STATE IN THE MINISTRY OF STATISTICS AND PROGRAMME IMPLEMENTATION AND MINISTER OF STATE IN THE MINISTRY OF PARLIAMENTARY AFFAIRS (SHRI VIJAY GOEL)
(a): The National Statistical Commission (NSC) constituted a Committee on Real Sector. This Committee also looked at linking old and new GDP series. The Committee adopted the technique of ‘production- shift approach’ to back cast the new series estimates. In this approach the difference between the new and the old series of estimates of the base year is distributed across the past years for which back series is estimated using an econometric model but not based on using new methodology and data sources. The alternative suggested by Committee on Real Sector Statistics was examined by Advisory Committee on National Accounts Statistics (ACNAS) which felt that it would not be appropriate to have a single uniform approach across all sectors. Based on the results of the various alternatives and iterations, a detailed approach was adopted by this ministry, in line with the methodology of 2011-12 Base Year Series and the UN System of National Account (SNA)-2008 guidelines.
(b): The details of the Gross Fixed Capital Formation under the old (2004-05) and new (2011-12) series is given in the table below:
Gross Fixed Capital Formation (GFCF) (Rs. in Crore)
<pre>
S No. Years 2004-05 Series 2011-12 Series
at current Prices at 2004-05 prices at current Prices at 2011-12 prices
1 1996-97 328046 465355 - -
2 1997-98 372401 506706 - -
3 1998-99 427069 555913 - -
4 1999-00 484666 599973 - -
5 2000-01 495196 591610 - -
6 2001-02 590240 682143 - -
7 2002-03 601120 679170 - -
8 2003-04 697478 750940 - -
9 2004-05 931028 931028 978463 1405052
10 2005-06 1120292 1081792 1189715 1636060
11 2006-07 1343775 1231266 1428913 1863048
12 2007-08 1641673 1430764 1754352 2167264
13 2008-09 1821099 1480943 1914401 2236602
14 2009-10 2055772 1594474 2161499 2408303
15 2010-11 2407070 1769793 2536936 2674328
16 2011-12 2861064 1986645 2997733 2997733
17 2012-13 - - 3324973 3145793
18 2013-14 - - 3515621 3194924
19 2014-15 - - 3750392 3278096
20 2015-16 - - 3918237 3448193
21 2016-17 - - 4352498 3797875
22 2017-18 - - 4778894 4087557
</pre>
(c): CSO, based on available data, has adopted methodology of revised base 2011-12 Series in preparation of Back-Series. The improvements in the compilation of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) with Base 2011-12 over the earlier series (Base 2004-05) are included in the Press Release of 28th November 2018 and the major ones are summarised below:
• The 2004-05 Series followed SNA 1968 and SNA 1993 whereas 2011-12 Series follows SNA 2008, which are the latest guidelines of UN on National Accounting concepts.
• In the new series, estimation has been done at basic prices as per SNA 2008 in place of estimation at factor cost followed till 2004-05 series.
• In the current series, Institution-wise compilation of aggregates has been done instead of aggregate approach.
• Compilation of Financial Services Indirectly Measured (FISIM) was done in 2011-12 Series using the reference rate method rather than averaging credits and deposits.
• In the new series, sector specific Consumer Price Index (CPI) of sectors of health, education, transport & communication etc. have been used as compared to CPI Industrial workers (IW) & Agricultural Labourers (AL) used in the earlier series.
The Back-Series methodology was presented before the Advisory Committee on National Account Statistics (ACNAS), which is a specialized body comprising of experts from various institutions in the related field. After the approval of the methodology by the committee, the results were released and have been uploaded on the website of this Ministry.
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