(a) whether there are reports that the EL Nino will have an adverse impact on the monsoon and Kharif sowing in the year 2010;
(b) if so, the details thereof and reaction of the Government thereto;
(c) if so, likely effect on the agricultural production;
(d) whether the Government is prepared to tackle the situation in view of the possibility of shortage of foodgrains due to the continuous decline in foodgrain production; and
(e) if so, the details thereof?
MINISTER OF STATE IN THE MINISTRY OF AGRICULTURE AND MINISTER OF STATE IN THE
MINISTRY OF CONSUMER AFFAIRS, FOOD AND PUBLIC DISTRIBUTION (PROF. K.V. THOMAS)
(a) to (c): No, Madam. Analysis of the long term data suggests there is an
inverse relationship between the El Nino events and Indian Summer Monsoon Rainfall
(ISMR). The 132-year historical rainfall record reveals that severe droughts in
India have always been accompanied by El Nino events. Yet El Nino events have not
always produced severe droughts. There is no one-to-one relationship. 126 year
record (1880-2005) suggests, only less than half of El Nino events are associated
with deficient rainfall over India and in other El Nino years, ISMR was normal or
excess. El Nino is one of the factor of determining the ISMR variability and not
the sole factor in itself.
(d)&(e): The Government has been closely monitoring the situation arising out
of deficit rainfall and its impact on food grain production. Presently, the stock of
foodgrains in the Central Pool are adequate to meet requirement of the existing levels
of allocations to the States and UTs under the Targetted Public Distribution System
(TPDS).