THE MINISTER OF STATE FOR MINISTRY OF SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY AND
MINISTRY OF EARTH SCIENCES
(SHRI Y. S. CHOWDARY)
(a-b) Indian scientist have developed a dynamical framework to predict the onset of monsoon over Kerala about 7-10 days in advance. This criterion enrooted in rainfall and low level wind indices has been found to be successful in predicting the onset with great fidelity for the past 14 years. The model has an error of +/- 4 days for the onset of monsoon over Kerala. Earth System Science Organization-Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology (ESSO-IITM), Pune, Earth System Science Organization-India Meteorological Department (ESSO-IMD), Earth System Science Organization -Indian National Centre for Ocean Information Services (ESSO-INCOIS), Hyderabad and Earth System Science Organization-National Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasting (ESSO-NCMRWF), NOIDA, have been experimenting with coupled ocean -atmospheric climate models for a) improved prediction of monsoon rainfall on extended range to seasonal time scale (16 days to one season) and b) improved prediction of temperature, rainfall and extreme weather events on short to medium range time scale (up to 15 days) so that forecast skill gets quantitatively improved further for operational services of ESSO-IMD.
Through Indo-US collaboration, a “Monsoon Desk” has been set up for working jointly for improving seasonal forecast of Indian monsoon rainfall. Through this forum, Indian and US Scientists are exchanging their ideas and sharing their expertise. This effort has led to appreciable improvements in the efficiency of models in making better forecasts.
The success achieved in improving the accuracy of heavy rainfall warnings during the summer monsoon season is enumerated below:
1. Probability of Detection (PoD) has been assessed at 0.71.
2. False Alarm Rate (FAR) has been dipped to 0.13.
3. Missing Rate (MR) has also been reduced to 0.29.
4. Percent correct (PC) of yes/no rainfall forecast for monsoon season 2014 is 91%.
(c) Under “Gramin Krishi Mausam Sewa (GKMS)”, ESSO-IMD disseminates weather based agromet advisories including arrival of monsoon with 4 days in advance (twice a week) about rainfall intensity, spread etc. to the farming community of different districts of the country through multi-mode communication channels including mass and electronic media (All India Radio, Television, Print Media), internet and also through SMS and IVR (Interactive Voice Response Technology) under PPP mode as well as through Kisan Portal launched by Ministry of Agriculture, Govt. of India for efficient crop planning and minimizing the negative impact on crop. Presently, around 11.47 million farmers are receiving the information through SMS on regular basis.
(d) After the establishment of Ministry of Earth Sciences (MoES) in 2006 structured research and development initiative involving MoES institution and research group have been launched. Details of major programs of the MoES during the XII plan include
No. Name of the Scheme Allocation for XII Plan(2012-17) Rs.in Crore
1 Atmospheric Observation System Network 700
2 Satellite Meteorology 70
3 Integrated Himalayan Meteorology Programme 108
4 Agrometeorology 164
5 Climate Services 55
6 Numerical Modeling of Weather &Climate 90
7 Monsoon Mission Programme 290
8 Physics and Dynamics of Tropical Clouds 120
9 Development of High Impact Severe Weather Warning System of India 89
10 Short Term Climate Prediction and Variability 90
11 Centre for Climate Change Research 100
12 High Resolution Operational Ocean Forecast and Reanalysis System 40
13 Centre for Advanced Training in Earth System Sciences and Climate 140
14 Outreach and Awareness Programme 67
15 High Performance Computing 568
Total 2691
Allocation to ESSO-IMD, ESSO-IITM ,Pune and ESSO-NCMRWF during last three five years plans are detailed below :
Rs.in Crore
Plan Period IMD IITM NCMRWF
9th Five Year Plan (1997-2002) 634.33 26.08 43.46
10th Five Year Plan (2002-2007) 924.51 47.72 71.95
11th Five Year Plan (2007-2012) 1840.07 367.25 36.36
(e) The Seasonal forecast for the country as a whole is issued in two stages; first stage forecast in April and update for April forecast in June. The predictors used for April and June long range forecast are given in annexure-I
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